The Crisis in the American-Turkish Relations: The Creation of an Independent Kurdistan Read online

he Crisis in the American-Turkish Relations

  The Creation of an Independent Kurdistan

  Iakovos Alhadeff

  Copyright © 2014 by Iakovos Alhadeff. All rights reserved.

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  Table of Contents

  Turkey and Syria

  Turkey and Iran

  Turkey and the United States

  Kurdistan

  Turkey and Syria

  Turkey is one of NATO’s strongest members, and has for many years been a traditional US ally. However Turkey’s ambitious energy policy is putting this relationship to the test. Turkey is fighting with all its might, in order to become the absolute energy hub between the Middle East and Europe.

  That was clear from the way Erdogan slammed Israel, a former ally, when Israel, together with Cyprus, started exploiting its natural gas reserves in the Mediterranean Sea, which could provide Europe with an alternative source of energy, which would bypass Turkey.

  Turkey’s ambitions became even clearer when Erdogan became one of the most enthusiastic supporters of the overthrown of another former ally, the Syrian dictator Bashar al- Assad. Erdogan became one of the major enemies of the Assad regime, after the Syrian dictator agreed in 2011 for the construction of the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline, which would transfer Iranian natural gas and oil to the Mediterranean Sea, and which would bypass Turkey (see green line on the following map). The end of this pipeline would also be near the Turkish port of Ceyhan in the Mediterranean Sea, which is the end of the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline that brings Azeri oil to the Mediterranean Sea through Turkey.

  Previously, in 2009, Assad had refused to allow the Qatar-Turkey pipeline, which would transfer Qatari gas to Europe through Turkey, to pass through Syrian territories, because as he said this would harm the interests of Russia and Gazprom. The truth is that the Qatar-Turkey pipeline would harm the interests of both Assad’s allies, i.e. the interests of both Russia and Iran.

  In the following article of the Turkish Weekly, titled “Turkey and Qatar Agree to Build a Natural Gas Pipeline”, you can read that Qatar and Turkey agreed on 2009 to a Qatar-Turkey natural gas pipeline that would transfer Qatari natural gas to Europe. However they needed Syria.

  https://www.turkishweekly.net/news/87212/turkey-and-qatar-agree-to-build-a-natural-gas-pipeline.html

  In the 2nd line of the 5th paragraph before the end of the following Guardian article, titled “Syria intervention plan fueled by oil interests, not chemical weapon concern”, August 2013, you can read the following:

  “In 2009 - the same year former French foreign minister Dumas alleges the British began planning operations in Syria - Assad refused to sign a proposed agreement with Qatar that would run a pipeline from the latter's North field, contiguous with Iran's South Pars field, through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria and on to Turkey, with a view to supply European markets - albeit crucially bypassing Russia. Assad's rationale was "to protect the interests of [his] Russian ally, which is Europe's top supplier of natural gas”.

  https://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2013/aug/30/syria-chemical-attack-war-intervention-oil-gas-energy-pipelines

  At the following article of Today’s Zaman, a Turkish newspaper, titled “Erdogan: Assad is a good friend, but he delayed reform efforts”, dated May 2011, you can read that in May 2011 the first strains in the Erdogan-Assad relationship had already appeared, but Erdogan was still calling Assad a friend.

  https://www.todayszaman.com/diplomacy_erdogan-assad-is-a-good-friend-but-he-delayed-reform-efforts_243660.html

  What Erdogan meant by ‘reforms’ in Syria, was for Assad to go to elections. What Erdogan meant by ‘reforms’ in Syria, was for Assad to go to elections. Note that Sunni Muslims account for about 65% of the Syrian population. Therefore if Bashar al-Assad, the Iranian ally, was to go to elections, it should be easier for Sunni Turkey and Sunni Qatar, than for Shiite Iran, to gain influence in Syria. Assad is an Alawi Muslim. Alawi Muslims are an off shot of Shiite Muslims. Note that Shiite Muslims are also called Shia Muslims. However at this point Erdogan had not openly asked for Assad to step down, and he was calling him a friend.

  At the following Wall Street Journal article, titled “Iraq, Iran, Syria Sign $10 Billion Gas-Pipeline Deal”, June 2011, you can read about the Iranian-Iraqi-Syrian pipeline deal in June 2011, which infuriated Erdogan.

  https://online.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424053111903591104576467631289250392

  As you can read at the following Reuters article, titled “Turkish Prime Minister calls on Syria's Assad to quit”, November 2011, a few months after the agreement for the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline was signed, Erdogan openly asked for Assad to step down.

  https://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/22/us-turkey-syria-idUSTRE7AL0WJ20111122

  Of course Erdogan will never openly admit that his problem with the Assad regime is the Iran-Iraq-Syria and the Qatar-Turkey pipelines. He will pretend that their differences are based on human right violations in Syria, as it usually happens in the international arena. More specifically, Erdogan claims that Assad’s human right violations cause Syrian people to flee the country, and these people enter Turkey, and therefore Assad has to go, in order for these people to stop leaving Syria and entering Turkey.

  Turkey and Iran

  As it was expected, the Turkish attack on Assad, who had previously agreed on the Iranian pipeline project, infuriated the Iranians, since the Turkish attack on Assad was an attack on the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline too, and a support to the Qatar-Turkey pipeline. Iranians were so furious with Erdogan, that a few months later, in 2012, they rejected Constantinople (Istanbul), as the proposed venue for the nuclear talks between the great powers and Iran.

  Given that it was Turkey and Brazil who had made huge efforts in the previous years, for an agreement between Iran and the West, over the Iranian nuclear program, the Iranians must have been extremely angry with Erdogan in order to reject Instabul as the proposed venue for the event, something that would be very prestigious for Erdogan’s role as an international mediator.

  Obviously Erdogan was not trying to lift the sanctions against Iran due to his love for Iran. Instead, Erdogan wanted the sanctions lifted, so that the Iranians could send their natural gas to Europe through Turkey, something that cannot be done as long as there are economic sanctions against Iran. What Erdogan wants in return for his intermediation between Iran and the West, is that the Iranian energy passes through Turkey and not through Syria.

  At the following Reuters article, titled “Turkey, Brazil seal deal on Iran nuclear fuel swap”, May 2010, you can read how Turkey and Brazil, as mediators between the West and Iran, almost cut a deal on behalf of Iran with the major world powers, over the Iranian nuclear program in 2010.

  https://www.reuters.com/article/2010/05/16/us-iran-nuclear-deal-idUSTRE64F29P20100516

  In the first and the second paragraphs of the following Bloomberg article, titled “Iran Officials Reject Istanbul as Talks Venue Over Syria”, April 2012, which is about the Iranian rejection of Instabul as the proposed venue for the international talks over the Iranian nuclear program due to Er
dogan’s actions against Assad, you can read the following:

  “Iranian officials say Turkey isn’t a suitable location for nuclear talks expected in mid-April as the neighbors clash over unrest in Syria, Iran’s ally.

  “Given Turkey’s unprincipled policies, it isn’t beneficial for the upcoming negotiations between Iran and the 5+1 countries to be held in Istanbul,” said Alaeddin Boroujerdi, head of parliament’s national security and foreign policy committee. “Iranian lawmakers have many times said that negotiations need to take place in another spot and in a country that is a friend of Iran,” he told the Tehran-based Etemaad newspaper in a report published today”.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-05/iran-officials-reject-istanbul-as-talks-venue-amid-syria-discord.html

  I have to say that the Turkish attack on Assad and the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline was not personal or irrational. It was simply a business decision. Erdgogan is doing everything he can to lure the Iranians to send their energy to Europe through Turkey. Erdogan follows a stick and carrot policy towards the Iranians.

  In the 8th and 9th paragraph of the following BBC article, titled “Iran nuclear programme 'solely civilian' - Turkish Prime Minister”, dated March 2010, you can read the following:

  “In an interview with the BBC's Nik Gowing, Mr Erdogan said he believed it was Iran's "most natural right" to develop a nuclear programme for civilian purposes.

  It was, he added, "unfair" of nuclear-armed countries to "manipulate the facts" about Turkey's neighbour while at the same time not telling Israel to dispose of its nuclear weapons”.

  https://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8570842.stm

  How could Erdogan do it better for the Iranians? He said that the Iranian nuclear program was not dangerous, and he blamed Israel. He couldn’t make it any sweeter for the Iranians. And yet in 2012 the Iranians rejected Istanbul as the venue for the international talks over the Iranian nuclear program, because the Iran-Iraq-Syria and the Qatar-Turkey pipelines are very important for the Iranians and the Iranian economy. For the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline see also Wikipedia at the following link.

  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran-Iraq-Syria_pipeline

  One of the reasons that Turkey is so tough in its energy policy, and she is willing to even risk her friendship with the Americans for its shake, is that she is very poor in energy resources, and she has to import most of her energy. Turkey currently imports most of her energy from Russia.

  However she is hoping that if Iran is dependent on Turkey, that is if Turkey is the shortest way through which Iran can send its oil and natural gas to Europe, Iran will be forced to offer discount energy prices to Turkey. The increase in Turkey’s geopolitical significance as the region’s only energy hub is obviously a very important factor too. As long as Assad, an Iranian ally, rules in Syria, Iran will have more bargaining power. And as I already said, the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline would be very close to the end of the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline, which would mean lower revenues for Turkey, and a decrease in her geopolitical significance.

  Controlling Iraq and Syria is also very important for Iran, in order to block the Qatar-Turkey pipeline. Actually in case Iran reaches an agreement with the West, blocking the Qatar-Turkey pipeline will be more important than constructing the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline for the Iranians, since Iran will be able to send its energy to Europe through Turkey. At the end of the day every Middle East battle for an energy corridor has two purposes. The first one is to sell your own energy, and the second one is to block the sales of your competitors.

  Which of the two is more important depends on the individual cases and it also depends on how things are going to evolve. For instance if Iran reaches an agreement with the West, controlling Syria and Iraq will be more important for the Iranians in order to block the Qatar-Turkey pipeline. If the Iranians do not reach an agreement with the West, controlling Syria and Iraq will be more important for the Iranians in order to construct the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline.

  That’s the reason Turkey and Iran are in bad terms, since Turkey is fighting Iran’s major ally in Syria, and also Iran’s friends in Iraq, in order to block Iran’s exit to the Mediterranean Sea, and to open the corridor for the Qatar-Turkey pipeline. However at the same time the two countries are trying to have a working relationship, since Turkey needs the Iranian energy to pass through Turkey, for the reasons I already mentioned, and in order to decrease Turkish dependency on Russian energy, and Iran needs Turkey to send its natural gas to Europe through a pipeline network. The Turkey-Iran relationship is a “love to hate” relationship. Or to be more accurate it is a “hate and business” relationship because there isn’t much love in it.

  If Iran wants to send its natural gas to Europe through a pipeline network and not through the sea, the only other option besides Turkey would be Russia. However Russia is the larger exporter of natural gas in the world, and Iran would not want its main competitor to control its natural gas. The problem is that Turkey does not want Iran to have any other alternatives, and it also wants the Qatar-Turkey pipeline, and the Iranians do not like Erdogan bullying them.

  In the following Reuters article, titled “Turkey's Erdogan visits Iran to improve ties after split over Syria”, January 2014, you can read the following:

  First and Second Paragraphs

  “Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan visited Iran on Wednesday to bolster trade and energy ties, state TV said, in what also looked like a bid to defuse tensions over Syria by capitalizing on Tehran's diplomatic opening to regional rivals and the West.

  Iran has been a strong strategic ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad since the start of the uprising against him, while Turkey has been one of his fiercest critics, supporting his opponents and giving refuge to rebel fighters.

  Fourteenth and Fifteenth Paragraph

  “Erdogan's delegation repeated Turkey's demand for a discount on the price of natural gas from Iran, a senior Turkish official said. A senior Iranian official then told Reuters: "This issue was discussed but further talks will take place on the issue of discount. No decision has been made yet.

  Turkey depends on imports for almost all of its natural gas needs and the $60 billion energy bill Ankara must foot annually has been the biggest driver of its ballooning current account deficit, regarded as the main weakness of its economy.”

  https://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/29/us-iran-turkey-erdogan-idUSBREA0S11T20140129

  As I said Erdogan has also very good relations with Qatar, and they both support the Muslim Brotherhood. If the Sunni Muslims of the ISIS army win enough regions in Syria and Iraq, so that they manage to create a connection between Qatar and Turkey, Qatar and Turkey should be able to construct the Qatar-Turkey natural gas pipeline, which would transfer Qatari natural gas to Europe through Turkey, if of course Saudi Arabia or Kuwait agree to that too.

  At the same time they can block the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline. Turkey would again receive lots of money in transit fees, and maybe discount energy prices from Qatar. The following map shows what ISIS would need to achieve, in order to enhance the Qatar-Turkey pipeline and to block the Iran-Iraq-Syria one. If you google a map with the areas controlled by ISIS today, you will see that this has almost been achieved.

  We therefore see that Turkey follows a very aggressive and ambitious energy policy, and she is almost an independent regional power. Turkey attacks anyone who dares to overcome her as an energy hub between Middle East and Europe, and she is in a constant bargaining process with the rich in energy countries. However the Americans and the Europeans do not seem to feel comfortable with having to rely on Turkey for the energy supply of Europe.

  Turkey and the United States

  Turkey is indeed a country with great strategic significance for Europe and the US, since it is only through Turkey that a pipeline carrying Iranian, Qatari or Turkmen natural gas can reach Europe, offering and alternative to Gazprom, something that would reduce the Russian influence over Europe (red, yellow and white lines
). Note that Iran, Qatar and Turkmenistan are the 2nd, 3rd and 4th richest countries in the world respectively, in terms of natural gas reserves, with Russia being the richest. For the richest countries in natural gas reserves see page 21, of the following U.S. Energy Information Administration report, titled “Country Analysis Brief : Iran”.

  https://www.eia.gov/countries/analysisbriefs/Iran/iran.pdf

  The problem for the Americans is that Turkey has become too important and too powerful, and it is an independent regional power, and not an ally of the West. Therefore the West cannot rely on Turkey in the same way it used to do in the past.

  The Assad regime, is a major dispute not only between Turkey and Iran, but also between USA and Turkey. Assad is a traditional Russian ally, and he is not the best option for the Americans. Actually the Americans were very positive towards his overthrown sometime ago. However I do not thing that the replacement of Assad by a Sunni candidate who would be controlled by Turkey would be a better solution for the US. It would probably be worse, given that the United States have managed to significantly improve their relations with Iran, which is Assad’s major ally. If the United States normalize their relations with Iran, Assad should not be a big problem for them even though he is very close to Russia.

  As you can read in the following Wall Street Journal article, titled “U.S., Iran Relations Move to Détente”, October 2014, the American-Iranian relation have significantly improved. More specifically, in the 8th paragraph of the following article you can read the following:

  “This shows that although we see Turkey and Arab states as our closest allies, our interests and policies are converging with Iran’s,” said Vali Nasr, dean of the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University and a former Obama administration official. “This is a geostrategic reality at this moment, more than a conscious U.S. policy.”

  https://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-iran-relations-move-to-detente-1414539659

  The relationship between Iran and the West is far from perfect. But it seems that the West is ready to overlook some things in order to buy Iranian oil and natural gas. And as you can read at the following Telegraph article, titled “Iran offers Europe gas amid Russian energy embargo fears”, May 2014, the Iranians seem ready to supply this natural gas to Europe.

  https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/10808037/Iran-offers-Europe-gas-amid-Russian-energy-embargo-fears.html

  Therefore if the US-Iranian relations normalize, it would be